The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provided a detailed update in Parliament on its deployment of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) technologies to enhance weather forecasting and early warning systems for extreme weather events across India. The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) is integrating AI/ML-based forecast guidance with operational systems including data assimilation, Earth System modelling, ensemble prediction, High Performance Computing (HPC), and conventional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) utilizes this AI/ML-generated guidance to improve forecasting skills for weather extremes across various scales.
Key AI-based initiatives include the establishment of a dedicated functional R&D group within IMD, the development of a deep learning model (meteoGAN) for rainfall downscaling in the Delhi-NCR region at 300-meter resolution, and the creation of an AI-based medium-range model for generating 7-day forecasts using ERA5 data. The ministry has also established research collaborations through MoUs with IIT Kharagpur, IIIT Allahabad, IIIT Vadodara, Ashoka University, Google Asia Pacific Ltd., and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL).
Under Mission Mausam, AI/ML constitutes a major pillar for next-generation forecasting, used to complement conventional methods by accelerating forecast generation, improving accuracy, reducing biases, and producing high-resolution downscaled forecasts. Specific developments include a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based model for bias correction of rainfall forecasts from the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), AI/ML techniques for lightning forecasting, and the "MausamVani" application using Generative AI and LLMs to provide weather decision support in regional languages.
An AI/ML-dynamical hybrid blended model was developed for disseminating localized agronomic monsoon onset advisories. During the 2026 southwest monsoon season, this system sent SMS advisories to approximately 5.28 crore farmers across 15 States and one Union Territory. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune has established a dedicated AI/ML Centre to develop technology for assimilating real-time observations and forecasts. IMD is working toward establishing an integrated National AI-based Early Warning Platform that will combine satellite, Doppler Weather Radar, in-situ weather stations, oceanic and river observations, physics-based models, and AI systems to generate Impact-Based Forecasts and Risk-Based Warnings with improved accuracy and lead times.
While forecast accuracy for short- to medium-range prediction has shown improvement through the CNN bias correction model, most AI/ML systems remain in experimental stages. Consequently, no separate quantitative assessment has been conducted regarding their independent contribution to reducing loss of lives, property, and livelihoods. Dissemination occurs through multiple channels including mobile apps, SMS, TV, radio, websites, social media, and AI-enabled multilingual tools like Bhashini. LLM-based applications such as "MausamGPT" are under development to generate user-friendly multilingual summaries of forecasts and warnings.