Nomura's Policy Watch pushes Fed's first 2026 rate cut from June to September, forecasting only two cuts this year.
Delay attributed to Iran war‑driven inflation, volatile energy prices, supply‑chain disruptions, and the postponed Kevin Warsh chair confirmation.
Fed remains biased toward easing, showing asymmetric response to labor weakness versus temporary price spikes, per Nomura.
Nomura expects a “higher‑for‑longer” monetary stance in Q2 2026, with a second cut projected for December.