Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Tensions
On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, oil prices climbed for a third consecutive session after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of fresh military strikes against Iran and Washington reinstated its maritime blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. At 07:28 ET (11:28 GMT), Brent crude futures for September delivery increased 0.8% to $85.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 0.6% to $79.82 per barrel, placing both benchmarks at their highest levels in roughly a month following a near‑10% surge earlier in the week.
The U.S. military reported early‑Wednesday strikes aimed at degrading Iranian capabilities used in attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait. In a Fox News interview aired late Tuesday, President Trump stated the United States would continue striking Iran unless Tehran returned to negotiations, adding that power plants and bridges could be targeted as early as next week, though energy facilities would be spared for the time being. Trump also withdrew a proposal introduced a day earlier to impose a 20% transit fee on cargo passing through the Strait after opposition from key Gulf allies.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, carrying roughly one‑fifth of global oil consumption. Despite heightened security risks and recent attacks on commercial vessels, shipping activity continued, albeit at a slower pace.
Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories fell by about 600,000 barrels last week, a draw far below analysts’ expectations of a roughly 2.7‑million‑barrel decline.
Goldman Sachs strategists noted that their Brent price forecast of $80 per barrel for Q4 2026 and $75 for 2027 carries upside risk, with the risk skewed to the upside in the near term due to the increased threat of further attacks on tankers and Middle‑East energy infrastructure. They projected that Brent could exceed $110 per barrel in Q4 2026 if Gulf oil flows remain stalled and demand must absorb the adjustment, while a rapid rebound in flows and cooling demand amid high retail fuel prices could push Brent into the $60s by year‑end.