Oil prices fall to pre‑Iran war lows

Oil prices declined for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with Brent crude futures for August delivery slipping 0.5% to $73.38 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures edging down 0.3% to $70.14 per barrel. Both contracts have fallen nearly 4% in the previous session, taking Brent to its lowest level since February 27, the day before the U.S.–Iran conflict began, and erasing most of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up during the war.

Normalisation of Strait of Hormuz traffic

The market focus on the Strait of Hormuz eased as traffic through the key oil artery returned to near‑normal levels. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that roughly 20 million barrels exited the strait over the past 24 hours under military protection. Shipping data confirmed that a larger number of vessels resumed transit after weeks of disruption, and several tankers previously stranded in the Gulf have restarted their voyages. Expectations of a recovery in Iranian oil exports, aided by temporary U.S. sanctions relief and a reduction in regional hostilities, further allayed fears of a prolonged supply crunch.

Continued supply‑side risk warnings

Analysts cautioned that any renewed tension between Iran and the United States could quickly reignite supply‑side concerns, despite the recent price decline.

U.S. inventory data

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended 19 June, reaching 412.1 million barrels—the lowest level since January 2025 and a larger draw than analysts had expected. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also declined by about 1.1 million barrels, hitting their lowest level since 2014. In contrast, gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, increased by 3.1 million barrels.

Market sentiment

The combination of normalising Hormuz flows, falling U.S. crude inventories, and mixed product stock movements contributed to the bearish tone in oil markets, while the lingering risk of renewed geopolitical tension remains a key uncertainty.