Market Overview

Oil prices were largely unchanged on Thursday, with Brent crude futures for September delivery quoted at $71.60 a barrel, a modest 0.06% rise, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for August delivery at $68.47 a barrel, down 0.17%. The flat movement came ahead of the long U.S. Independence Day weekend and followed a four‑week losing streak that had pulled the benchmarks back to levels seen before the Iran‑war escalation.

Geopolitical Context

The price stability was driven by improving tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz and a corresponding decline in supply‑disruption concerns, even as a fresh flare‑up in fighting between the United States and Iran was reported. Diplomatic momentum improved after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in France on 17 June, which reopened the Strait. Subsequent indirect technical talks held in Doha this week concluded without a breakthrough but were described by Qatar as making “positive progress,” with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations focused on shipping through the strait and other confidence‑building measures.

Traffic and Shipping Data

Kpler data indicated 34 verified vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and a later report noted the crossing of an LNG tanker on Thursday, suggesting stabilising conditions for LNG traffic from Gulf exporters.

Supply‑Side Fundamentals

U.S. Energy Information Administration figures showed domestic crude production reached a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, reinforcing the view of abundant global supplies. ANZ analysts observed that the cooling of geopolitical strains has further reduced supply concerns, although they cautioned that lingering Middle‑East uncertainty continues to provide a floor for crude prices. The analysts also highlighted that the China Commodity Index rose 0.5%, with its energy component advancing an equal 0.5%, indicating resilient underlying commodity demand despite the recent price pullback.

OPEC+ Outlook

Market participants are assessing expectations that the OPEC+ producer group could raise output again in August, adding another variable to the supply‑demand balance.

Contributors

The article was authored by Anuron Mitra and includes contributions from Roushni Nair and Scott Kanowsky.