Oil Prices Reach Six‑Month Highs Amid Hormuz Attacks

Oil prices closed October at six‑month peaks as a surge in attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over the ongoing U.S.–Israel‑Iran conflict. Brent crude futures settled on Friday at $117.64 per barrel, a 2.4% increase after briefly touching $118, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2.1% to $104.12 per barrel. Over the month, Brent gained 13.6% and WTI climbed 15.2%.

Shipping Incidents

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that four oil tankers caught fire in or near Hormuz on Friday, alleging that some vessels struck naval mines after entering unauthorized routes; these claims remain unverified. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency separately confirmed a projectile striking a tanker exiting the strait and another vessel catching fire after a strike south of Iran’s Lavan Island, noting that the crew of the latter vessel was safe.

UKMTO’s tally shows at least 35 attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Hormuz during October, the highest monthly count since the conflict began in February.

Traffic Levels

Although shipping traffic has shown some improvement, it remains sharply depressed. In the week ending 28 October, UKMTO recorded 122 outbound and 155 inbound transits, representing roughly a 70% decline from pre‑war levels.

Geopolitical Statements

President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were continuing and later suggested the war would end soon, emphasizing that Tehran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran after reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance proposed renewed talks; Iranian sources indicated a meeting could be arranged within a week in Doha or Istanbul. Pakistan’s military expressed cautious optimism about its mediation role.

U.S. military officials reportedly briefed President Trump on options for additional strikes, potentially after the upcoming midterm elections, underscoring the risk of renewed hostilities. An Iranian official warned that Tehran had prepared a broad response to any new attack.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz estimated that the conflict has added more than €100 billion ($112 billion) to Europe’s energy costs and called for a negotiated settlement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of severe retaliation against countries attacking Iran, keeping the possibility of further disruption to energy shipments in focus.

Market Impact

The combination of heightened geopolitical risk and confirmed shipping attacks has driven crude prices to six‑month highs, with Brent and WTI both posting double‑digit monthly gains. The sharp reduction in shipping transits and the uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations continue to pressure market participants.