Oil Market Outlook – 1 Oct 2026
Investors observed a notable rise in crude prices on Thursday as market participants balanced signs of recovering Middle‑East oil flows with lingering diplomatic uncertainty surrounding the regional conflict.
Brent crude futures for December increased 2.0% to $100.03 per barrel by 04:26 ET (08:26 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 2.2% to $92.37 per barrel. The front‑month Brent contract, which expired on Wednesday, had settled at $103.50 in the prior session. Brent recorded a 14% gain in September, its strongest monthly increase since July, and WTI advanced roughly 5% over the same period.
Kpler data indicated that Middle‑East crude exports rose to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the conflict began in February. Despite this improvement, exports remained about 3.2 million barrels per day below the February baseline, keeping the market sensitive to any renewed supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia also resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on its east‑west pipeline.
On the diplomatic front, Iran announced it had received a U.S. response to its latest cease‑fire proposal, following President Donald Trump’s rejection of an earlier plan that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
In the United States, the Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts’ expectation of a 700,000‑barrel draw. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories—including diesel and heating oil—declined by 2.3 million barrels, indicating tighter fuel markets.
President Donald Trump stated that discussions are ongoing regarding a potential U.S. diesel export ban as diesel prices surged to $6.53 per gallon and inventories remain historically low. The issue has gained urgency amid record diesel pricing.
(Reporting contributed by Scott Kanowsky)