Market Overview
Oil prices slipped in Asian trade on Thursday, June 18, as traders evaluated the newly announced interim U.S.–Iran peace accord and concerns over a potential global supply surplus. At 20:44 ET (00:44 GMT), Brent crude futures for August delivery fell 1% to $78.73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 1.2% to $75.89 per barrel.
Interim U.S.–Iran Accord
The 60‑day agreement, signed digitally by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, calls for a cessation of hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a gradual easing of U.S. restrictions on Iranian oil exports. Trump indicated that Washington could re‑impose pressure if Tehran violates the terms.
Supply Outlook
The International Energy Agency warned that global oil markets could shift into a substantial surplus once Middle Eastern production fully recovers. The IEA forecast global oil supply growth of about 8 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2027, far exceeding expected demand growth of roughly 2 million barrels per day, which would generate a surplus of more than 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
U.S. Inventory Data
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week ended 12 June, bringing total crude stocks to 418.2 million barrels, a much larger draw than analysts’ expectation of a 3.6 million‑barrel decline. Gasoline inventories slipped by 0.9 million barrels to 214.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks unexpectedly rose by about 1.0 million barrels to 103.1 million barrels.
Monetary Policy Context
Investors also considered the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, where policymakers left the policy rate unchanged as anticipated but signaled a rate hike later in the year.