Oil Prices Edge Lower Amid U.S.-Iran Accord and Trump Warning
Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Thursday as investors assessed the implications of the newly unveiled U.S.-Iran peace accord and fresh warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump. As of 20:44 ET (00:44 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in August fell 1% to $78.73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 1.2% to $75.89 per barrel.
The market had seen a near‑1% rebound on Wednesday after Trump suggested the agreement with Tehran was not yet final and warned that military action could resume if Iran failed to meet U.S. expectations.
The interim 60‑day agreement, signed digitally by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, calls for a cessation of hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a gradual easing of U.S. restrictions on Iranian oil exports. Trump maintained a tough stance, stating Washington could reimpose pressure if Tehran violated the deal’s terms.
Analysts note that the prospect of additional Iranian barrels returning to the market reinforces expectations of improving global supplies, especially after weeks of disruptions caused by conflict around the Gulf region.
Adding to the bearish tone, the International Energy Agency warned that oil markets could swing into a substantial surplus once Middle Eastern production fully recovers. The agency forecast global oil supply growth of about 8 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2027, far outpacing expected demand growth of roughly 2 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of more than 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
Investors also digested U.S. inventory data showing a sharper-than‑expected draw. The Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12, bringing total stocks to 418.2 million barrels, versus analysts’ expectation of a 3.6 million‑barrel decline. Gasoline inventories slipped by 0.9 million barrels to 214.2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose by about 1.0 million barrels to 103.1 million barrels.
The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, which left interest rates unchanged as expected, was also noted by market participants.
Overall, the combination of the tentative U.S.-Iran accord, President Trump’s renewed warning, the IEA’s surplus outlook, and a stronger‑than‑expected inventory draw contributed to the 1%‑plus dip in oil prices.