Oil market reaction to temporary sanctions easing and Hormuz traffic rebound
On Tuesday, Brent crude futures for September delivery fell 0.9% to $76.86 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for August slipped 0.8% to $73.29 a barrel. The price decline was moderated compared with the sharper drop on Monday, when benchmarks fell more than 3% after the United States and Iran announced progress in Swiss peace talks and the U.S. issued a temporary 60‑day general license. The license permits the production, sale and delivery of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products and also covers related banking, insurance and shipping services, raising expectations that Iranian exports could rise in the coming weeks.
Analysts at ING noted that Iran had already begun ramping up exports following the lifting of the U.S. blockade and that the waiver would open additional markets, including the United States. Iranian officials described the Swiss talks as achieving “major progress,” and media reports indicated Tehran secured relief on oil and petrochemical exports, with a final accord expected within 60 days.
President Donald Trump announced that 19 million barrels of oil had moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous day, calling it an “all‑time record.” Shipping analytics firm Kpler confirmed a rebound in vessel crossings: total transits rose from 32 between June 12‑14 to 93 between June 19‑21, an increase of 61 crossings. The most pronounced surge occurred on Saturday, when crossings jumped to 42 from just 3 the previous week, and Kpler said the temporary sanctions waiver had become a key enabler of the traffic recovery, easing compliance uncertainty for Hormuz transits through August 21.
The article also highlighted mixed messaging on Iran’s nuclear programme. Trump asserted that Iran had “fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future,” linking this concession to his decision to keep the Hormuz Strait open without a naval blockade. U.S. President‑elect JD Vance had earlier said the Swiss talks resulted in Iran agreeing to invite International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, a claim Iran’s state media denied, citing foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei. When questioned, Trump maintained that Iran had indeed agreed to inspections, stating that any contrary reports were wrong.
The piece was contributed by Ayushman Ojha and Vahid Karaahmetovic.