Market Reaction

Investors pushed oil prices lower on Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Besset told CNBC that the United States and Iran were close to a deal that could be signed “today or tomorrow,” potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz. At 07:45 ET, Brent crude futures slipped 1.8% to $82.23 per barrel, erasing earlier gains of more than 2.5% recorded earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 2.6% to $78.24 per barrel, also reversing prior advances of over 2.5%.

Diplomatic Developments

Besset’s comments were echoed by Qatar, which said it was mediating a diplomatic resolution focused on de‑escalation and the reopening of the Strait. Qatar added that draft language for a possible agreement had been circulated among negotiators, although no direct talks had yet been scheduled.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that discussions with Iran were underway and warned Tehran that it faced a “last chance” to reach a deal. In contrast, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei stated that Iran was not currently negotiating with the United States and was instead coordinating with Oman to establish a vessel‑traffic route through the Strait, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments.

Market Commentary

ING analysts noted that the mixed signals – U.S. optimism, Iranian denial, and Trump’s warning – left the situation uncertain and could allow a renewed escalation if a deal does not materialise.

U.S. Crude Export Data

Data released on Monday showed U.S. crude exports fell to 3.66 million barrels per day in July, marking the lowest level in eight months. The decline was attributed to increased Middle‑East supply following a short‑lived cease‑fire in June, which reduced demand for American crude.

Outlook

The combination of potential diplomatic progress and the latest export data suggests that oil market participants will closely monitor any concrete agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, as its resolution could further influence price dynamics and supply‑demand balances in the coming weeks.