S&P Global Ratings affirms Jordan's sovereign ratings
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Jordan's long‑ and short‑term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at BB‑/ (short‑term B) with a stable outlook, keeping the transfer and convertibility assessment at BB+.
The stable outlook reflects a balance over the next 12 months between Jordan’s resilient economic performance after fiscal and economic reforms and higher international reserves, against elevated regional security risks, still‑high public debt, and sizable current‑account deficits. Jordan’s location and integration with the Middle East make it vulnerable to regional conflict, yet the economy shows relative resilience through rerouted trade, strong remittance inflows, and bilateral financial support.
S&P forecasts GDP growth slowing to 2.5 % in 2026 and then averaging 3.2 % per year for 2027‑2029, assuming regional security stabilises in the coming months. Total cargo volumes at the Port of Aqaba have risen 16 % year‑on‑year as neighbouring countries reroute trade to avoid bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz. Remittances in the first half of 2026 increased 14.3 %, and tourism arrivals hit a record high in July.
The firm revised its projection for Jordan’s consolidated government deficit to 2.2 % of GDP for 2026 (up from an earlier 1.6 % estimate), comprising a central‑government deficit of 5.1 % of GDP and a 3.3 % surplus at the social‑security level. Net general‑government debt is expected to rise to just above 77 % of GDP in 2026 and then decline toward 74 % of GDP by 2029. External support is projected at close to US$4 billion in 2026.
Current‑account deficit is forecast to widen to 7.2 % of GDP in 2026 before moderating to about 5.0 % of GDP by the end of 2029. Gross foreign‑exchange reserves are estimated at approximately US$26 billion at year‑end 2026, equivalent to roughly 7.7 months of current‑account payments. International backing, particularly from the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council, remains a key pillar of the rating; U.S. allocations for 2026 are planned at US$2.1 billion.