Rating affirmation: S&P Global affirmed Sweden’s sovereign credit ratings at AAA (long‑term) and A‑1+ (short‑term) for both foreign and local currency, with a stable outlook.
Growth outlook: Real GDP growth is projected at 2.1 % for 2026, accelerating to 2.5 % in 2027, driven by expansionary fiscal policy, rebounding private consumption and strong military exports.
Fiscal projections: Government primary deficit expected to widen to 2.6 % of GDP in 2026 (up from 1.3 % in 2025). Net general‑government debt is forecast to rise to 32.2 % of GDP by 2029.
Defense spending: Government aims to increase defence and security investment to 3.5 % of GDP by 2030, up from 1.2 % pre‑war levels.
Current account: A surplus averaging 5.1 % of GDP is projected for the 2026‑2029 period.
Per‑capita income: GDP per‑capita estimated at US$68,800 for 2026.
Risks: Rating could be pressured if Sweden’s competitiveness declines, budget performance worsens, or the September 2026 parliamentary elections alter policy direction.
