Overview
TD Securities, the research arm of Toronto‑Dominion Bank, said on Monday 15 June 2026 that Japan is likely to postpone Ministry of Finance (MoF) foreign‑exchange market intervention as the dollar‑yen pair edges toward the 165 level. The analysts highlighted that risks point toward a more delayed intervention ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming interest‑rate decision.
Intervention Trigger
Analysts Jayati Bharadwaj and Howard Du wrote that if the USD/JPY moves higher toward 162 following an anticipated quarter‑point rate increase by the BoJ, the price action would begin to satisfy the MoF’s intervention trigger.
Recent Yen‑Support Spending
Finance Ministry data show Japan spent nearly US$74 billion between 28 April and 27 May 2026 to support the yen. The dollar‑yen rate reached 160.72 on 30 April 2026.
BoJ Policy Expectations
TD Securities said the BoJ needs to convince market participants that it will either raise rates faster than once every six months or increase rates to a terminal level above 1.5 %.
Options Market Insight
Options market data indicate that speculative short‑yen positions have been limited during the recent rise to around 160, and some of the yen’s weakness may be attributable to broader dollar strength.