U.S. Tax Refunds +17% vs 40% Gas

Tax refunds are 17% higher than last year, but tax payments rise $40‑55 billion, still below the $80 billion increase without OBBBA.
Gasoline prices up 40% since the war, creating a $140 billion income headwind for U.S. households, expected to fall to $60 billion by year‑end.
Real disposable income is projected to grow 1.2% full‑year, while real consumption growth is expected at 1.5% full‑year, indicating limited consumer tailwinds.