UBS Delays Fed Rate Cut to Dec 2026

UBS now expects the Fed’s first interest‑rate cut in December 2026, pushing back from the previously forecast September 2026.
Persistent core goods inflation (~0.3% MoM) and strong Q1 private sales growth of 2.5% reduce urgency for near‑term easing.
UBS forecasts two cuts (Dec 2026, Mar 2027) to bring the federal funds rate to 3.00‑3.25% by Q1 2027.
Fed Governor Waller’s April comment on Strait of Hormuz stability cited as factor that could ease supply‑shock concerns.