NIESR cuts UK GDP growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, trimming 0.5 and 0.3 points.
The institute warns the economy will be £35 billion smaller over 2026‑27, with a narrow avoidance of recession in baseline.
CPI inflation projected to peak at 4.1% in early 2027, falling to 2% by 2028; Bank Rate likely to rise 25 bps.
Energy shock from Middle East conflict pushes petrol up 17% since Feb and household energy cap expected to rise 12% in July.