Overview
Zambia's Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane announced on 13 Oct 2026 that the country's GDP growth projections for 2027 and 2028 have been revised downward to 4.9 % and 5.0 % respectively, compared with the September 26 forecasts of 6 % for 2027 and 7.5 % for 2028.
Drivers of the Revision
The downgrade is attributed to two external shocks. First, the anticipated impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which in 2024 devastated Zambia's corn crop and caused two years of power outages as drought reduced hydropower generation. Musokotwane said the nation is now better prepared, entering the main crop‑growing season next month with a record level of strategic corn stocks following a bumper harvest and with newly added solar‑power capacity to offset hydropower shortfalls.
Second, the ongoing war involving Iran is raising fuel prices and suppressing agricultural output, further weighing on growth prospects.
IMF Programme and Policy Actions
During IMF staff‑level talks, Zambia downgraded its growth expectations. The authorities and the International Monetary Fund reached a staff‑level agreement last week and are seeking Executive Board approval to release the first tranche of a $1.5 billion programme as early as December 2026.
In parallel, the government has committed to prior actions stipulated by the IMF, including reforming the appointment process for the head of the Anti‑Corruption Commission and awarding a public tender for diesel‑pipeline imports by December.
Outlook
The revised forecasts imply a slowdown of roughly one percentage point for 2027 and 2.5 percentage points for 2028 relative to the September outlook, reflecting the combined effect of climate risk and geopolitical fuel‑price pressures.