Overview
Argentine wheat farmers have sold only 2 million metric tons of the new 2026/27 wheat crop, representing just 10.5 % of the expected production and the weakest start in a decade. Planting has reached 82 % of the area projected by the government, after earlier rain delays.
Forward Price Decline
The December wheat contract for post‑harvest delivery fell to about $206 per ton in early July, down from roughly $231 per ton in late April and mid‑May. The lower price has led farmers to postpone sales, leaving 690,000 tons without a fixed price.
Stockpile and Demand Outlook
The Rosario grains exchange estimates ending wheat stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year at about 4.5 million tons, the highest level since 2014/15. Domestic demand is projected at 9.2 million tons and exports are expected to reach a record 19 million tons.
Soybean and Corn Market
Only 42 % of the expected soybean output for the season has been committed, with merely 27 % sold at a fixed price—the lowest fixed‑price share in three decades. Corn sales improved, with weekly sales rising to roughly 800,000 tons, the highest since late May, while corn prices remain near $180 per ton, pressured by abundant supplies in Argentina and Brazil.
Implications
The combination of weak wheat sales, falling forward prices and high projected stockpiles could pressure future export volumes and price levels, while firm soybean and corn markets provide some offsetting dynamics.