Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey – July 2026
The Bank of Canada released its quarterly business outlook survey on Monday, 6 July 2026. The survey, conducted in May, captures Canadian business leaders’ views on inflation, trade uncertainty, employment and activity ahead of the central bank’s next policy decision, scheduled for three weeks later.
The survey notes that inflation expectations among firms have declined, reaching the lowest level recorded for the quarter. This drop follows the signing of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran in mid‑June, which the survey cites as a key factor easing trade‑related concerns.
Money‑market participants and economists now anticipate that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy interest rate at 2.25 % through the end of 2026, rather than tightening further.
Earlier concerns highlighted in the May survey—specifically that high gasoline prices would suppress demand, growth, sales and price pressures—are reported to be easing, according to a follow‑up questionnaire of business leaders.
Nevertheless, the share of firms that are planning or budgeting for a recession in Canada over the next twelve months has risen to 17 %, up from 9 % in the previous quarter.
The composite business outlook indicator, which measures prospects under current economic conditions, slipped to ‑0.39, marking the first decline in three consecutive quarters. Despite this drop, the reading remains above the ‑2.41 level recorded a year earlier.
No individual executives or corporate entities are named in the release.