Oil exports via Strait of Hormuz fell to 0.4 mb/d (four‑week average) as of March 30, a 17.2 mb/d YoY drop.
Barclays estimates net oil flow disruption of about 14.5 mb/d, with 175 million barrels still on Middle‑East tankers, down 10 mb/d weekly.
Alternative routes via Yanbu and Fujairah delivered 6 mb/d combined (four‑week average), up 2.7 mb/d YoY from 3.3 mb/d on Feb 22.
Barclays projects 2026 Brent at $88/bbl (base case) but could rise to $110/bbl if Hormuz normalization delays to end‑May.