Barclays Forecast 14.5 mb/d Oil Disruption

Oil exports via Strait of Hormuz fell to 0.4 mb/d (four‑week avg) as of March 30, a 17.2 mb/d YoY drop.
Barclays estimates net disruption of about 14.5 mb/d, with 175 million barrels remaining on Gulf ships, down 10 mb/d week‑over‑week.
Alternative routes Yanbu and Fujairah shipped 6 mb/d combined (four‑week avg), up 2.7 mb/d YoY from 3.3 mb/d on Feb 22.
Barclays sees 2026 Brent forward price at $88/bbl, could rise to $110 if Hormuz normalization delays to end‑May, versus $85 base case.