Bernstein 2026 Nickel Price Outlook
Bernstein has increased its 2026 nickel price target to $17,357 per metric ton, up from the 2025 average forecast of $15,164 per ton. The firm attributes the upward revision to a more balanced market, noting that the current surplus is only a small amount compared with earlier consensus estimates of over 200,000 metric tons at the start of the year.
Indonesia is identified as the primary driver of the shift, having tightened ore availability, raised the high‑pressure acid leach (HPAL) cost base, and introduced greater uncertainty into the commercial framework. C1 cash costs at the 75th and 90th percentiles have risen to $17,870 and $18,650 per ton respectively, well above 2025 levels of $14,650 and $15,300 per ton.
Bernstein also reports that the Indonesian government may raise RKAB quotas in the July revision to roughly 300‑350 million wet metric tons, versus the initially announced 260‑270 million, which likely contributed to the June pull‑back in nickel prices.
The ongoing Iran‑US/Israel conflict has tightened sulphuric acid supplies, a key input for HPAL, pushing granular sulphur prices from below $600 per ton to around $1,000 per ton and prompting production cuts at Indonesian HPAL facilities. Bernstein notes that if a peace deal is reached and sulphuric acid availability improves, cost pressures could ease.
On the demand side, global electric‑vehicle (EV) sales year‑to‑date through April rose 0.5 % year‑over‑year, with battery‑electric vehicles up 5.1 % and plug‑in hybrids down 8.5 %. Lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use nickel, remain dominant in both EVs and energy‑storage applications, while sodium‑ion batteries are expected to reach cost parity with LFP by the end of 2026 and could become a new source of nickel demand.
Combined LME and SHFE nickel inventories have risen to approximately 375,000 metric tons, equivalent to about 9 % of projected 2025 mine production. Underlying demand continues to be supported by stainless‑steel consumption, which accounts for the bulk of first‑use nickel demand and is projected to grow around 5 % year‑over‑year.