Overview
Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, told CNBC that the United States and Iran are "nearing an agreement" to resolve their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz and that there is "a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow" to open the waterway and move toward a more normalized position in the conflict.
Diplomatic Developments
Qatar, acting as a regional mediator, said a diplomatic push to de‑escalate the Iran war and reopen the Strait is ongoing; it added that language on a possible deal has been drafted and circulated among negotiators, although no direct talks have yet been scheduled. President Donald Trump earlier asserted that revived talks with Iran would start soon, a claim that Iranian Foreign Minister Esmail Baghaei denied, prompting Trump to label Iranian leadership "unbelievably duplicitous." Tehran confirmed that talks with Oman concerning the Strait’s status are continuing, but vessel traffic remains scant and military tensions stay heightened.
Market Impact
Following Bessent’s comments, Brent crude futures slipped 2.9% to $81.38 a barrel after previously gaining more than 2.5%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 3.2% to $77.75 a barrel. Correspondingly, benchmark U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields declined (specific level not disclosed). Market tickers reflected broader moves: LCO down 3.81%, CL down 4.66%, and TNX down 1.24%.
Security Incident
Early on Tuesday, the British navy’s marine‑traffic monitoring agency (UKMTO) reported a fresh strike on a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The agency did not identify the attacker, marking the incident as another instance of conflicting signals from the region.
Analyst Commentary
Mizuho analysts, in a client note, described the near‑term geopolitical backdrop as "somewhat unclear," noting that while the prospect of a deal could ease supply concerns, the recent vessel strike and mixed diplomatic messages sustain uncertainty.