BofA Global Research reports Strait of Hormuz oil flows fell from ~20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d due to Middle East conflict.
The firm now forecasts a 4 mb/d supply deficit in Q2 2026 and raises its 2026 Brent price target to $92.50 per barrel.
BofA warns a prolonged shortfall could force a 4‑5% YoY contraction in global energy demand and mandatory consumption cuts.
If disruptions persist beyond 2‑4 weeks, markets may face extreme price volatility and stagflationary pressure on global growth.