BofA Global Research reports Hormuz oil flows fell from ~20 mb/d to under 2 mb/d, risking 1970s‑style supply breakdown.
The firm now forecasts a 4 mb/d supply deficit for Q2 2026 and lifts its 2026 Brent average target to $92.50 per barrel.
BofA warns prolonged disruption (>2‑4 weeks) could force 4‑5% YoY global energy demand contraction and mandatory consumption cuts.
Investors focus shifts from price to physical availability as supply tightening creates stagflationary pressure on global growth.