REITs have been the worst‑performing S&P 500 sector since the end of 2021, declining 12.5% over that period and remaining the only sector in negative territory.
On the day of the article, the REIT sector rallied over 1.5%, while high‑momentum stocks fell, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
The VNQ ETF rose +1.99%; other REIT‑related ETFs also posted gains: REG +2.36%, EXR +2.27%, NNN +2.16%.
BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky believes a breakout above $98‑100 for VNQ would position the ETF to challenge its 2021 high of $117.
Momentum unwind is favoring REITs, which are among the lowest‑momentum names currently. Constructive chart patterns were highlighted for Extra Space Storage, NNN REIT, Inventrust, and Regency Centers.
Krinsky projects the Nasdaq 100 to test its 50‑day moving average, implying roughly 4.5% additional downside for the QQQ ETF.
He also anticipates a potential 15% decline for the SOXX semiconductor ETF to its 50‑day moving average.
Historical analysis from BTIG shows a 90% probability of a break when the Nasdaq 100 falls 4% or more on a Friday; the index indeed broke Friday’s lows on the day of reporting.
BTIG maintains a Buy rating on Inventrust with a $32 price target and a Buy rating on Regency Centers with a $79 price target.
Broader market moves on the day included: NDX -2.78%, US500 -1.44%, QQQ -2.71%, SOXX -5.42%, IVT +0.82%.
