Macquarie analysts indicate that Chinese state‑owned refiners may begin accessing commercial oil reserves from the third quarter of 2026, following visits to supply‑chain companies and policy experts in Beijing and Shenzhen. No commercial reserves were released in the first half of 2026 as tighter export controls and lower refinery utilisation prompted market rebalancing. Access to low‑cost inventories held by parent companies will be subject to government approval and is expected to support an earnings recovery in the second half of 2026, benefiting Sinopec.
The firm’s supply‑chain discussions suggest China could expand very large crude carrier (VLCC) capacity to strengthen crude‑import security. Over the medium term this expansion may limit speculative upside in VLCC freight rates, while incremental demand for new‑build tankers could benefit equipment suppliers Neway and Jiuli. Macquarie assigned a 60% probability that higher VLCC freight costs will ultimately be passed through to end users; whether such costs are incorporated into the National Development and Reform Commission‑regulated gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism will be pivotal for refining margins and tanker market dynamics.
Macquarie argues that concerns about a peak in China’s energy storage system (ESS) demand are overstated. Nationwide expansion of spot‑market trading and negative on‑grid tariffs should widen peak‑trough spreads and improve ESS economics. Liaoning’s nuclear‑power tariff reform, which pressures tariffs from 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m., illustrates this trend.
Continued market reform and stricter dual‑carbon controls are expected to sustain ESS demand through the 15th Five‑Year Plan. However, more negative generation tariffs could weigh on earnings for nuclear operators such as CGN and CNNP.
Management changes are accelerating reforms across China’s state‑owned oil companies, with Sinopec chairman Hou Qijun’s agenda helping the company navigate near‑term market and policy volatility. Macquarie named Sinopec as its preferred state‑owned enterprise reform exposure.