Core Findings

The October 2026 edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker finds that the artificial‑intelligence (AI) boom is the dominant driver of world trade, outweighing higher tariffs and geopolitical shocks. AI‑related goods such as semiconductors and data‑transmission equipment accounted for 42% of global goods‑trade growth in 2025 and rose to 76% of the increase in the first quarter of 2026. John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, stated that every AI query depends on logistics and that DHL’s network moves the essential hardware that powers AI.

Trade Growth Drivers

Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than any half‑year in the past 15 years, apart from the Covid‑19 rebound. The report attributes this acceleration primarily to the surge in demand for AI‑enabling equipment. WTO and OECD analysis confirm the 76% share of AI‑related goods in Q1‑2026 trade growth.

Impact of Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts

The Iran‑War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted key shipping routes, causing a 37% decline in trade value for Saudi Arabia and a 7% decline for the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. U.S. tariff levels reached their highest in decades, yet their global effect was muted because the United States represents only 13% of world imports and roughly half of those imports were exempt from the increases as of August 2026. Most countries avoided broad retaliation and instead pursued alternative market access through new trade agreements.

Outlook to 2029

The Tracker projects an average annual expansion of global goods trade of 3.4% through 2029, substantially faster than the 2.7% annual growth recorded over the previous decade. This outlook is more optimistic than forecasts made before the 2025‑26 U.S. tariff hikes and the Iran war, indicating that recent shocks have had a limited overall impact.

Regional Performance

East Asia and the Pacific posted the strongest growth, with trade value rising 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe grew 12% and Sub‑Saharan Africa 11%. South and Central Asia recorded a 9.6% increase and is projected to be the second‑fastest region for goods‑trade growth over 2026‑29, behind only the Middle East and North Africa. Intra‑regional trade in East Asia and the Pacific rose from 57% of total regional trade in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, driven by strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom.

U.S.–China Trade Dynamics

Direct trade between the United States and China fell from a peak of 3.5% of world goods trade in 2015 to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. The share of international business investment between the two economies is now below 1%. Indirectly, however, Chinese components remain embedded in many U.S. imports, so overall U.S. reliance on China declined only slightly through 2024.

India’s Trade Diversification

India continues to strengthen its trade resiliency by negotiating new agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, the European Free Trade Association, New Zealand and Oman. These efforts aim to broaden market access and reduce exposure to concentrated trade routes.

Globalization Index

The Tracker measures globalization on a 0‑100 scale, where 0 indicates no cross‑border flows and 100 indicates no border impact. In 2025, globalization reached a record 25.8%, driven by higher levels of international trade, capital, information and people flows. Information flows were the most globalized, followed by capital and trade, while people flows remained the least globalized.

DHL Globalization Tracker Details

The report analyses more than 30 million data points drawn from over 25 public, private and academic sources. It is authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of NYU Stern School of Business and is commissioned by DHL. An interactive website provides charts, regional breakdowns and downloadable data.

DHL Group Background

DHL Group, the world’s leading logistics company, generated approximately €82.9 billion in revenue in 2025 and employs about 584 000 people across more than 220 countries and territories. The Group aims for net‑zero emissions in logistics by 2050 and operates under the DHL and Deutsche Post brands.

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