DRC Sovereign Rating Assessment
S&P Global Ratings affirmed the Democratic Republic of Congo’s long‑term sovereign credit rating at B‑ and its short‑term rating at B, maintaining a positive outlook. The affirmation reflects contained headline budget deficits, stronger international reserves, and robust copper demand despite ongoing military conflict in the east and a recent Ebola outbreak.
Economic Forecasts
S&P projects that DRC’s real GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 5.5% over the 2026‑2029 period. Headline budget deficits are expected to average 2.4% of GDP across the same horizon, while international reserves have risen to $8.2 billion as of late June 2026, supported by a narrowing current‑account deficit and strong foreign direct investment inflows.
Commodity Outlook and Production
The agency anticipates copper prices to increase by 26% in 2026, which should help narrow the current‑account deficit to below 2% of GDP. Copper and cobalt production is projected to rise in 2026, driven primarily by higher output from the Tenke Fungurume mine operated by China Molybdenum Co Ltd (CMOC). This increase is expected to more than offset a temporary decline at the Kamoa‑Kakula mine, operated jointly by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd and Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd, which is implementing a new mine plan and recovering from seismic activity experienced in 2025.
Fiscal and Financial Developments
In April 2026, the DRC completed its inaugural Eurobond issuance totaling $1.25 billion, consisting of a $600 million senior unsecured tranche maturing in 2032 at an 8.75% yield and a $650 million tranche maturing in 2037 at a 9.50% yield. Fiscal reforms already enacted under the Extended Credit Facility program include the introduction of a standardized value‑added tax invoicing system in December 2025 and the removal of various tax exemptions and fuel subsidies. Defense and exceptional expenditures continue to exceed 3% of GDP annually.
Geopolitical Context
Armed conflict persists between the Congolese army and the Rwanda‑backed M23 rebel group, even as separate U.S. and Qatar‑led peace initiatives remain active.