EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Middle East Supply Drops
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised upward its 2026 and 2027 crude oil price forecasts on 3 September 2026, citing a rapid decline in global oil stockpiles caused by reduced Middle‑Eastern supply linked to the ongoing Iran‑related conflict. The agency now projects the Brent crude spot price to average about $91 per barrel in 2026, representing an increase of roughly 5 percent compared with its earlier 2026 estimate. For U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the EIA forecasts an average price of $84.65 per barrel for the same year, also about 5 percent higher than the prior outlook.
Global oil inventories have already fallen by approximately 400 million barrels in 2026, and the EIA expects the downward trend to continue through the end of the year. Middle‑Eastern crude production shut‑ins rose to 6.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 5 million barrels per day in July 2026. The agency anticipates that shut‑ins will average 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a gradual increase in output expected as flows through the Strait of Hormuz improve. Nevertheless, the EIA assumes that constraints on Middle‑Eastern exports will persist for the remainder of 2026, keeping regional crude output below pre‑conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027.
U.S. distillate fuel inventories are projected to fall below 100 million barrels in September 2026 and to remain beneath the five‑year low for most of 2027. Global distillate fuel production is expected to stay below the 2025 level in the coming months.
The forecast revisions were finalized before the latest escalation of hostilities, during which the United States and Iran exchanged attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure, pushing Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel on the Wednesday of the report.