Overview
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its global oil production forecast after the Strait of Hormuz was reopened following a June 18 agreement between the United States and Iran. The agency now projects that worldwide crude oil production and trade flows will recover to near pre‑conflict levels by the end of 2026, with most previously shut‑in production expected to return online in the first quarter of 2027.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $85 per barrel in June, representing a decline of $22 per barrel from May and $32 per barrel from the April 2026 peak. The EIA revised its Brent price forecast to an average of $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, which is $27 per barrel lower than the prior month’s forecast. For 2027, the agency expects Brent to average $65 per barrel as oil inventories continue to build.
U.S. Retail Gasoline Forecast
The EIA forecasts U.S. retail gasoline prices to decline to $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter of 2026 and further to about $3.40 per gallon in the fourth quarter. The annual average price is projected to fall below $3.10 per gallon in 2027. For the second half of 2026, average retail gasoline prices are expected to be approximately $3.60 per gallon, down from $4.48 per gallon in May.
Natural Gas Price Outlook
For natural gas, the EIA projects the Henry Hub spot price to average close to $3.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, with an easing to below $3.50 per MMBtu in 2027.
Source Note
The article was generated with the support of artificial intelligence and reviewed by an editor, as indicated by the Reuters disclaimer.