Overview

The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), a global coalition hosted by Systemiq Ltd, released a letter on 6 Nov 2026 signed by more than 30 members—including Arup, Envision, Octopus Energy, Rothschild, Schneider Electric, Tata Steel and Vattenfall—urging COP31 President Murat Kurum and Negotiations President Chris Bowen to place clean electrification and the decarbonisation of hard‑to‑electrify sectors at the centre of the summit outcome.

Climate Projections and Policy Gap

ETC’s new analysis states that, without additional policy support and with technologies adopted only when cost‑competitive, global warming is on track to reach 2.6 °C by 2100. By contrast, accelerating clean electrification—targeting 35 % electricity share of final energy by 2035 and raising electricity’s overall share to over 50 % by 2050 while reducing coal’s share in power generation to under 5 %—could lower projected warming to around 2.3 °C.

Additional Decarbonisation Levers

The commission identifies five priority actions. Decarbonising heavy industry (steel, cement, aluminium, chemicals), aviation and shipping together could shave about 0.2 °C from the warming trajectory, though they entail a “green premium”. Green steel is estimated to cost 45 % more than conventional steel, adding roughly 1.2 % to a car’s price. Effective carbon pricing—~$100 per tonne for steel and cement, and $200‑300 per tonne for aviation and shipping—would drive these sectors toward net‑zero.

Methane emissions from fossil‑fuel production, agriculture and waste would need to be cut by 45 % by 2050, removing an additional 0.2 °C. Ending deforestation by 2035 would contribute a further 0.07 °C reduction. Combined, the five actions could bring warming down to approximately 1.8 °C, though this would require policy‑driven cost support.

Carbon Removal Requirements

To limit warming to the Paris‑aligned 1.5 °C by the end of the century, ETC estimates the world must achieve over 500 Gt of CO₂ removals this century. The associated cost is projected at more than $500 billion per year, equivalent to about 0.4 % of today’s global GDP. Current purchased removals are under 20 Mt per year, highlighting a massive scale‑up gap.

Quotes

Co‑Chair Adair Turner emphasised that falling costs of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles have already reduced the risk of catastrophic warming, but unchanged policies keep the world on a 2.6 °C trajectory. Co‑Chair Jules Kortenhorst likened clean electrification to a rolling boulder that needs faster grids and permitting, while heavy‑industry, methane, deforestation and removals are “boulders stuck at the foot of the hill” requiring carbon pricing and finance to move uphill.

Call to Action

The signatories request that COP31:

  • Accelerate clean electrification by endorsing the 35 % target for 2035 and developing strategies for developing countries.
  • Commit globally to faster decarbonisation of steel, cement, aluminium, chemicals, aviation and shipping, including the implementation of robust carbon pricing mechanisms.

These measures, the ETC argues, could reignite the “ambition loop” of policy, private investment and falling technology costs that has already lowered projected warming from an upper bound of 4 °C to 2.6 °C.