EU Staples Cost Index Down 5% YoY

Morgan Stanley's Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index fell 5% YoY in April, while rising 3% MoM from March.
Year‑over‑year, ethylene (+99%), propylene (+84%) and oil (+61%) prices surged, whereas eggs, cocoa, coffee and sugar stayed below prior‑year levels.
Monthly gains were driven by propylene (+51%), ethylene (+50%) and HDPE/PET/LDPE (+34%); European natural gas fell 20% and US gas 9%.
Morgan Stanley projects 1% YoY cost pressure for staples in 2026 (excluding chocolate), with chocolate facing 7% headwind H1 and 8% tailwind H2.