EU Steel Spreads Surge, ArcelorMittal EBITDA Beats

EU hot‑rolled coil spreads have risen sharply since late 2025, while CR304 stainless spreads stay within €1,000‑€1,800 per tonne range.
Barclays forecasts ArcelorMittal Q1 adjusted EBITDA $1.71 bn (+4% vs consensus) and Europe EBITDA $640 m (+73% YoY), trimming full‑year 2026 Europe EBITDA 5% to $3.25 bn.
Voestalpine Q4 EBITDA projected €425 m (+35% QoQ) and full‑year 2026 EBITDA €1.46 bn; Thyssenkrupp FY26 EBIT cut 2% to €860 m, price target reduced to €9.
Acerinox Q1 EBITDA €113 m (+12% QoQ) but FY26 EBITDA cut 5% to €600 m; Aperam and Outokumpu FY26 EBITDA trimmed 5% and 2% respectively; India quickly filled Q2 import quotas despite CBAM.