Bank of America economist Antonio Gabriel finds a 10% oil price shock lifts Eurozone inflation ~40 bps and cuts growth >10 bps, double the US impact.
European Commission warns a prolonged Iran‑related supply shock could force fuel consumption cuts and trigger jet‑fuel shortages within weeks.
Two scenarios outlined: cease‑fire eases diesel/jet‑fuel prices by late summer; persistent tensions risk gas‑storage shortfalls and extreme price spikes.
Europe’s larger energy share and net‑importer status explain its heightened sensitivity versus the United States.