European hot‑rolled coil prices rose ~€100/tonne YTD to about €700/tonne, a 10% YoY increase to €660/tonne in Q1 2026.
Price gains are driven by the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, higher energy and shipping costs, and stable demand.
Bank of America estimates €20/tonne of the rise stems from costs and raises its 2027 HRC forecast to €730/tonne after July tariff‑rate‑quota.
The price outlook adds about 6% upside to ArcelorMittal’s FY2026 consensus EBITDA, highlighting broader sector impact.