Freeport-McMoRan Shares Surge 7% on Record Copper Price
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), the largest U.S.-listed copper producer, saw its shares climb 7.2% to $77.99 as of 10:26 AM ET on 8 September 2026, marking a 44% gain year‑to‑date and placing the stock in line with peers Southern Copper and Teck Resources, both up roughly 45% for the year. The rally was triggered by the London Metal Exchange three‑month copper contract reaching an intraday all‑time high of $14,694 per ton, eclipsing the prior record of $14,527.50 set in January 2026. LME copper finished the session up 1.1% at $14,673 per ton.
Management’s sensitivity model estimates that every $0.10 (10‑cent) increase in copper price translates into approximately $390 million of additional annual EBITDA for Freeport‑McMoRan, rendering the price surge a material earnings event in real time. The company projects EBITDA of $13 billion if copper trades at $5 per pound and $20 billion at $7 per pound for 2027‑2028. With copper trading above $6.60 per pound in LME terms on the day, FCX’s earnings outlook sits comfortably above the $13 billion floor, assuming price levels are maintained.
Supply‑side dynamics are tightening. U.S.-bound metal flows have accelerated ahead of potential tariff actions, pulling copper inventories out of global warehouses and into American ports. Chile, the world’s dominant copper producer, reported its weakest second‑quarter output in at least 19 years and has cut its full‑year production forecast for a second consecutive quarter, now projecting a 2.6% annual decline. Morgan Stanley, which had begun 2026 expecting mine supply to expand, revised its outlook to flat or slightly lower production, marking the first annual decline in global copper mine supply since 2017. Anglo American Chief Operating Officer Ruben Fernandes was quoted by the Economic Times saying, “Supply will come, but the question is how quickly.”
On the demand side, Citigroup analyst Tom Mulqueen forecasts copper reaching $15,000 per ton by year‑end, with an upside scenario of $17,000 per ton if manufacturing recovers or demand from the energy transition, data‑centre expansion, or strategic stockpiling exceeds expectations. The broader miner complex reflected this optimism, with Toronto Stock Exchange precious and base‑metal stocks dominating the top‑gainers list on Tuesday, according to Investing.com data.
Near‑term catalysts could influence the rally’s trajectory. The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on Thursday, 10 September, and is widely expected to raise euro‑zone rates by 25 basis points, a move that could affect global risk appetite and commodity‑linked equity flows, including FCX. The United States will release inflation data on Friday, 11 September; a hotter‑than‑expected print could sharpen Federal Reserve rate‑hike expectations, potentially pressuring copper and mining equities via a stronger dollar and cooler growth sentiment, whereas a benign reading would keep the macro runway clear for copper’s push toward the $15,000 level projected by Mulqueen.
Overall, the combination of record‑high copper prices, supply constraints, and bullish forward‑looking EBITDA estimates has driven a pronounced share‑price surge for Freeport‑McMoRan, while upcoming monetary‑policy events in Europe and the United States remain key short‑term risk factors.