Market Overview

At 16:45 ET (20:45 GMT) on Monday, spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,163.56 per ounce, while front‑month gold futures rose 1.2% to $4,175.20 per ounce. The mixed movement reflected traders balancing U.S. monetary‑policy expectations against easing inflationary pressures linked to lower oil prices.

U.S. Labor Data and Fed Outlook

The market reaction was anchored to a softer‑than‑expected June non‑farm payroll report, which showed a resilient but not overheating labor market. The data gave the Federal Reserve room to consider keeping the policy rate unchanged. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking in Portugal, reiterated that the Fed would abandon forward guidance and focus solely on combating inflation. He emphasized that inflation risks had receded, noting that recent oil‑price declines should further ease energy‑related price pressures. The minutes of the June FOMC meeting, to be released on Wednesday, are expected to show that half of the participants still view a rate hike as possible this year.

Wells Fargo analysts led by Tom Porcelli echoed the view that recent inflation strength is largely driven by supply‑side factors—tariffs and energy—that are likely to fade. They forecast that the FOMC will keep the funds rate on hold for the foreseeable future.

Oil Market Developments

Over the weekend, OPEC+ members, including Russia, agreed to increase production targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, extending the phased rollback of voluntary output cuts. Although much of the additional supply has yet to reach the market, the decision reinforces expectations of a gradual supply recovery as Gulf conditions normalise.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained robust, with 108 verified vessel crossings recorded by Kpler between Friday and Sunday.

Geopolitical Commentary

President Donald Trump addressed reporters on Monday, stating that the United States had given Iran “a week off” for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died in strikes at the start of the conflict. Trump added that the U.S. would either reach a deal with Iran or “finish the job,” implying a continued hardline stance.

Summary of Key Figures

  • Spot gold: $4,163.56/oz (‑0.3%)
  • Gold futures: $4,175.20/oz (+1.2%)
  • OPEC+ output increase: 188,000 bpd from August
  • Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings: 108 (Fri‑Sun)
  • Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh (no forward guidance, possible rate hold)
  • Wells Fargo analyst: Tom Porcelli (inflation seen as supply‑driven)
  • President: Donald Trump (U.S. stance on Iran, week‑off comment)