Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Alexandra Paulus, warn that the rapid acceleration of electric‑vehicle (EV) sales is adding a new layer of downside risk to global oil demand. The firm estimates that the recent surge in EV sales could reduce global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day (mbpd) by December 2027.
Paulus notes that global EV car‑sales penetration increased by 3.4 percentage points since February, reaching an all‑time high of 26.1 % in the most recent month, after excluding a September 2025 spike caused by the expiry of a U.S. tax credit. Among the 15 largest EV markets, 12 have recorded higher penetration, with China leading the gains, its EV penetration rising 11.4 percentage points.
Goldman modeled two demand‑impact scenarios:
- Temporary Acceleration – assumes regional EV penetration rates remain at May 2026 levels, resulting in a 0.13 mbpd reduction in global oil demand by December 2027.
- Persistent Acceleration – assumes penetration trends continue, leading to a 0.32 mbpd demand loss by the same horizon.
The analysis focuses solely on additions to the passenger‑car fleet and does not incorporate two‑ and three‑wheeler EVs, which represent 92 % of total EV sales in India and 80 % in Vietnam, nor does it consider the roughly 55 % of global oil demand that is unrelated to road fuels.
Goldman states that the EV acceleration makes its downside oil‑price scenario more plausible, projecting Brent crude to fall to the mid‑$50s per barrel in late 2027. However, the firm cautions that “potentially more persistent constraints on Hormuz flows” could generate significant upside price risks.