Gulf Crude Output Down 57% vs Pre-War

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf crude production fell 14.5 million bpd, a 57% drop from pre‑war levels.
Empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has shrunk about 50% (~130 million barrels) since the war began, limiting recovery.
Goldman warns full recovery may lag markets, expecting only 70% of lost output after three months of reopening.
Risk of further scarring exists if hostilities resume, though this is not considered the base case.