Gulf crude oil output has dropped 57% (≈14.5 million bpd) from pre‑war levels, per Goldman Sachs analysis.
Goldman cites a 50% reduction in empty tanker capacity (~130 million barrels) and well‑flow constraints as key recovery hurdles.
Recovery to 70% of lost output is expected after three months and 88% after six months, assuming no renewed strikes and a safe Strait reopening.
Risks include potential scarring if hostilities resume; limited field damage and Saudi Aramco’s spare capacity could aid a quicker ramp‑up.