Heat pumps are being highlighted by a Bernstein note as a potentially overlooked source of electricity demand growth in Europe, especially the United Kingdom, as governments pursue electrification and energy‑security policies.
The European Union has set a target of installing 30 million heat pumps by 2030; the United Kingdom is also accelerating adoption through subsidies and policy support.
First‑quarter 2026 sales data show strong momentum: Finland heat‑pump sales rose 47 % YoY, Germany 34 %, and France 22 %.
In the United Kingdom, heat‑pump diffusion could add 8–22 TWh of annual electricity demand by 2035 (equivalent to 5 %–14 % of today’s total demand) and increase peak load by 8–21 GW over the next decade (up to 47 % of current peak demand).
The additional load would require substantial investment in distribution networks; grid operators and electricity generators stand to benefit from higher consumption.
Adoption barriers remain, including relatively high installation costs, reliance on government incentives, prevailing energy‑price levels, and housing‑stock characteristics.
