Overview
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Friday that it has reduced its forecast for Russian oil production, projecting a 3% decline to 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026. The agency attributes the downward revision to a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, storage sites and transport facilities.
The IEA lowered the Russian supply outlook by 85,000 bpd for the current year and by 150,000 bpd for the following year, and now expects Russian oil output to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast horizon. This represents a drop from the previously expected 9.2 million bpd in 2025. Russia remains the world’s third‑largest oil producer.
In response to the heightened attacks, Russia imposed a diesel export ban this week, supplementing existing restrictions on gasoline and jet‑fuel sales abroad, a measure aimed at alleviating domestic fuel shortages.
According to the IEA, Russia’s crude production in June increased by 120,000 bpd from May, reaching 8.86 million bpd. Despite the rise, this level remains 900,000 bpd below the production quota set by OPEC+. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously noted that Russian oil output had fallen since the start of the year, citing unplanned refinery maintenance as a contributing factor.
Russia stopped publishing official oil output data in April 2023, more than a year after the war in Ukraine began. The IEA reported that total Russian crude oil exports in June were 5.8 million bpd, up 620,000 bpd from May, while exports of oil products declined by 230,000 bpd to 1.91 million bpd in the same month.
This article was generated with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.