The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its First Stage Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season on 13th April 2026, predicting below-normal seasonal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This was subsequently revised downward to 90% of LPA in the Second Stage forecast, with anticipation of El Niño conditions developing.
As of 2nd August 2026, cumulative seasonal rainfall stands at 12% below the LPA, consistent with IMD's initial seasonal forecast despite intra-seasonal variations. June recorded 35% below-normal rainfall with 70% of districts experiencing deficits, while July recorded 1% above the LPA on an all-India scale due to strong rainfall in Central India. However, significant spatial disparities remained, with 47% of districts facing deficient or large-deficient rainfall as of early August.
Weak El Niño conditions formed over the equatorial Pacific in June 2026 and intensified to moderate strength, acting as a major large-scale climate driver in suppressing monsoon circulation across the country. This phenomenon directly contributed to the overall 12% cumulative deficit and widespread regional rain deficits. The primary implications include prolonged dry spells, localized meteorological drought, lower soil moisture, and moisture stress on rain-fed crops and water reservoir levels.
Cumulative rainfall up to 5th August 2026 revealed substantial spatial deviations across meteorological subdivisions. Sixteen subdivisions recorded significant rainfall deficiencies ranging between 20% and 38% below normal: Bihar (-38%), Arunachal Pradesh (-36%), Assam & Meghalaya (-35%), Coastal A.P. & Yanam (-35%), Lakshadweep (-33%), Punjab (-33%), Rayalaseema (-32%), East Uttar Pradesh (-30%), Jharkhand (-30%), Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi (-26%), Kerala & Mahe (-22%), East Madhya Pradesh (-22%), East Rajasthan (-22%), Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura (-21%), Coastal Karnataka (-21%), and South Interior Karnataka (-20%). These deficient regions face potential crop stress and reduced water storage.
IMD is continuously monitoring these climate drivers and issuing updated advisories to assist relevant Ministries and State Governments in disaster preparedness and agricultural planning. The information was provided by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply in Lok Sabha.