INCOIS Launches Specialized El Niño Bulletins for Maritime Sectors
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has initiated the release of specialized El Niño bulletins to highlight potential impacts of the ongoing El Niño event on India's maritime sectors. The first specialized bulletin was released on June 22, 2026, by Shri Konda Vishweshwar Reddy, Hon'ble Member of Parliament from Chevella Constituency, during an event held at INCOIS.
El Niño Development and Projected Timeline
The bulletin confirms that the El Niño event continues to develop and is expected to peak during the winter season from November 2026 to January 2027. Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are projected to remain higher than normal until April/May 2027, representing an extended period of elevated temperatures.
Marine Ecosystem Impacts
The marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean, encompassing both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is likely to experience thermal stress in the coming months, with the most severe conditions anticipated during March-May 2027. This thermal stress is expected to cause increased bleaching of coral reefs, more frequent episodes of marine heat waves, and significant reduction in fish catch volumes. The bulletin specifically identifies sardine and mackerel species as particularly vulnerable, with reductions expected due to migration of fish stocks to more suitable habitats or decreased recruitment. Additionally, fish may not reach desired sizes due to changes in marine environmental conditions associated with the developing El Niño.
Regional Sea State Conditions
The Bay of Bengal will experience rough sea conditions during the monsoon season, increasing the likelihood of coastal erosion and flooding along India's east coast. Conversely, the Arabian Sea and west coast are expected to have calmer than usual conditions, which may increase operational windows for various marine sectors. Coastal erosion and inundation are likely to be less severe along the west coast during the ongoing monsoon season.
Advisory and Future Bulletins
INCOIS advises all maritime operators to closely follow alerts, warnings, and advisories issued by the organization. The next specialized El Niño bulletin is scheduled for release in the second week of July 2026, providing ongoing monitoring and updates regarding the developing situation.