Jefferies Outlook on Indian Auto Sales – June 2026
Jefferies released an industry note indicating that the Indian automobile sector recorded strong volume growth across all major segments in June 2026. Wholesale shipments of trucks surged 38% year‑over‑year, passenger‑vehicle wholesales increased 23% YoY, and tractor wholesales rose 14% YoY.
In the passenger‑vehicle segment, overall wholesales grew approximately 23% YoY, but performance varied by manufacturer. Tata Motors posted a 67% YoY increase in passenger‑vehicle wholesales, while Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra each posted growth in the 24% to 28% range. Hyundai Motor India experienced a 10% decline in passenger‑vehicle wholesales after a fire at a supplier facility caused a loss of 14,000 units in June; production resumed normal levels on June 22, and the company expects to recover the lost output in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027.
Registrations across all vehicle categories accelerated, showing year‑over‑year growth between 20% and 38%. Electric‑vehicle (EV) penetration rose in both passenger‑vehicle and two‑wheeler segments. The EV share of passenger‑vehicle registrations increased by roughly 1.1 percentage points month‑over‑month to reach 7.7% in June. In the two‑wheeler market, EV share climbed 1.3 percentage points month‑over‑month, reaching 10.6% in June – crossing the 10% threshold for the first time. TVS Motor Company led the electric two‑wheeler market with a 24% share, followed by Bajaj Auto at 22% and Ather Energy at 16%.
Eicher Motors reported a 27% YoY rise in two‑wheeler wholesales, whereas Hero MotoCorp saw a 2% YoY decline. Honda Motor reported a 23% YoY increase in its two‑wheeler wholesales for the month.
Tractor registrations grew 30% YoY, complementing the 14% YoY increase in tractor wholesales.
Following the robust June data, Jefferies maintained buy ratings on Eicher Motors, TVS Motor Company, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Maruti Suzuki.