Jefferies Atlantic Hurricane Season Update
Jefferies released meteorological data on Thursday indicating that the Atlantic hurricane season has remained benign through its statistical peak on September 10, with only five named storms observed and no hurricanes recorded. The firm noted that, should this pattern persist, the global reinsurance industry could experience a profitable third quarter in 2026.
Colorado State University kept its overall storm‑count forecast unchanged but revised landfall probabilities downward across several regions. The university now projects a 16% probability of any landfall along the entire U.S. coastline, reduced from 17%. For the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, the probability is 7% (down from 8%); the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle is 9% (down from 10%); and the probability of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is 17% (down from 19%).
Tropical Storm Risk also lowered its August outlook, now expecting ten named tropical storms—one fewer than previously forecast—four hurricanes instead of five, and a single major hurricane rather than two, attributing the downgrade to less favorable conditions in the subtropical Atlantic compared to a month earlier.
In the United States, a severe convective storm outbreak affected the Midwest and Mid‑Atlantic regions from August 9 to August 12. Guy Carpenter estimated the losses from this event at $5.1 billion, placing it among the top ten industry loss events for the year. Gallagher Re reported that year‑to‑date industry losses from U.S. severe convective storm activity have exceeded $35 billion.
Western Europe experienced a comparable convective storm outbreak from August 24 to August 28, impacting France, Switzerland, and Italy. Gallagher Re expects total industry losses from this European event to reach €2.5 billion.
Separately, Nepal’s government assessed the economic impact of late‑August flooding at approximately $1.3 billion, with rebuilding costs projected to rise to as much as $5 billion.