Rating Upgrade
S&P Global Ratings raised Kazakhstan’s long‑ and short‑term sovereign credit ratings to BBB/A‑2 from BBB‑/A‑3 on 22 August 2026, and affirmed a stable outlook for the long‑term rating.
Economic Growth
Preliminary data from the Bureau of National Statistics show real GDP grew 4.1 % in the first half of 2026, despite a sharp slowdown in the first quarter caused by disruptions to oil exports and production. S&P projects that real GDP will expand by over 4 % on average in the medium term and forecasts an average growth rate of about 4 % for the 2027‑2029 period, outpacing most commodity‑exporting peers.
Fiscal Outlook
The agency expects the government’s fiscal deficit to average 1.2‑1.3 % of GDP in 2026‑2029, a revision from its earlier expectation of 2.3 % and a marked improvement from the 3.7 % deficit recorded in 2025. Gross general‑government debt is projected to remain modest at roughly 22 % of GDP over the same horizon.
External and Fiscal Buffers
S&P notes that Kazakhstan’s sizable external and fiscal buffers should cushion external shocks, including short‑term disruptions to oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium linked to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict. Government liquid assets are expected to stabilise at a high level of about 21 % of GDP for the next four years. Accumulated external assets of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the government exceed the country’s gross external debt, giving policy makers additional room to maneuver.
Transfer and Convertibility Assessment
The transfer and convertibility assessment was upgraded to BBB+, and the kzAAA national‑scale rating was affirmed. S&P indicated that a negative rating action could be taken if economic, fiscal, or balance‑of‑payments performance falls significantly short of expectations, while a positive action could be considered if fiscal performance and the reduction in the government interest bill exceed expectations.