Moody’s Investors Service affirmed Gabon’s long‑term foreign‑currency and local‑currency issuer ratings at Caa2 on 25 June 2026 and revised the outlook from stable to negative. The agency cited funding requirements equal to roughly 15‑20 % of gross domestic product each year, constrained access to financing and the heightened probability that the government will undertake additional distressed debt exchanges, which could amount to a default. Banks’ holdings of Gabon sovereign debt already represent about 30 % of their total assets, approaching regulatory exposure limits.
Gabon’s fiscal deficit was estimated at 8.5 % of GDP for 2025. Moody’s projects the deficit to narrow to 6.5 % of GDP in 2026 and further to 4.5 % in 2027. At the same time, the debt‑to‑GDP ratio is expected to climb to nearly 88 % by 2027, and the interest‑to‑revenue ratio is projected to rise from 17 % in 2025 to 19 % in 2027. An ongoing public‑debt audit adds the risk that previously unrecorded liabilities could emerge.
Recent private financing activities include a $570 million private placement completed in February 2025 and a $1 billion seven‑year oil‑backed loan from Trafigura signed in April 2026. The oil‑backed facility earmarks a portion of future oil revenues for repayment over the seven‑year period, underscoring refinancing pressures for eurobond amortisations that commence in 2028. Regional market issuances accounted for 22 % of GDP in 2025, of which short‑term Treasury bills represented roughly 10 % of GDP, reflecting the country’s reliance on these instruments to bridge its fiscal gap.
Overall, Moody’s assessment highlights substantial financing pressures, rising debt metrics and the possibility of further sovereign debt restructuring, which together justify the negative outlook.